Last Nights Ratings

[Quill]

I wouldnt be surprised if most of the 1st million is in the 1st 15 minutes and related to Bones. We lost ~5 Million viewers from Bones to Fringe.

Fringe does not usually lose nearly 1 million at the half hour. And if it did, that's even worse news since it means the ratings are even lower than what Nielsen puts out (Nielsen averages the half-hours, that's how they come up with the "final" number). Fringe does not have the high numbers in order to accomodate such a loss easily. For one, 1 million tuning out the first 5 minutes would mean "Jacksonville" most likely only had barely 7 million watching the entire airtime. Don't think that FOX and the advertisers don't know that.

It also doesn't bode well that Fringe was pretty much the ONLY 8-10pm show to really lose numbers at the half-hour on Thursday.

[Ph8]

Fringe does not usually lose nearly 1 million at the half hour. And if it did, that's even worse news since it means the ratings are even lower than what Nielsen puts out (Nielsen averages the half-hours, that's how they come up with the "final" number). Fringe does not have the high numbers in order to accomodate such a loss easily. For one, 1 million tuning out the first 5 minutes would mean "Jacksonville" most likely only had barely 7 million watching the entire airtime. Don't think that FOX and the advertisers don't know that.

It also doesn't bode well that Fringe was pretty much the ONLY show to lose numbers at the half-hour on Thursday.

Here are the losses after the 1st half hour for the past 3 weeks or so..

700k
500k
204k

I dont have the info for losses previous to that........But 700K does not seem that far off.......Also the number matches almost perfectly the the number Bones gained at the 8:30 hour (~710k).......Which would lead me beleive even more that the original number was slighly inflated by Bones.....Even by the sample at its lowest take Fringe was taking ~7 Mil viewers which is not bad, but not great. It appears to have a fanbase of the number that will watch the show live almost every week. I will be interested to see the DVR data though....

[Quill]

Here are the losses after the 1st half hour for the past 3 weeks or so..

700k
500k
204k

I dont have the info for losses previous to that........But 700K does not seem that far off.......Also the number matches almost perfectly the the number Bones gained at the 8:30 hour (~710k).......Which would lead me beleive even more that the original number was slighly inflated by Bones.....Even by the sample at its lowest take Fringe was taking ~7 Mil viewers which is not bad, but not great. It appears to have a fanbase of the number that will watch the show live almost every week. I will be interested to see the DVR data though....

Your theory doesn't pan out. Half-hour drops from TVByTheNumbers (I'll have to search for the others, I don't have them available either):

Jacksonville: -700 (Bones +710)
Bishop Revival: -200 (Bones +1000)
Lies Below: -500 (Bones +830)
Johari: -100 (Bones +800)
Grey Matters: Not listed
Snakehead: Not listed
August: -300 (Bones +830)
Of Human Action: -360 (Bones +700)
Earthling: -380 (Bones +870)
Dream Logic: -500 (Bones +400)
Momentum Deferred: Comment section: -600 (Bones not listed)
Fracture: Not listed
Objects: Not listed
New Day: Not listed

"Jacksonville" lost nearly twice (if not significantly more) as much as several of the other episodes, and no matter what, remains a significant drop compared to the majority of the other episodes. Plus, in no way do the Bones + match the Fringe's - numbers for the first half-hour.

[Ph8]

Your theory doesn't pan out. Half-hour drops from TVByTheNumbers (I'll have to search for the others, I don't have them available either):

Jacksonville: -700 (Bones +710)
Bishop Revival: -200 (Bones +1000)
Lies Below: -500 (Bones +830)
Johari: -100 (Bones +800)
Grey Matters: Not listed
Snakehead: Not listed
August: -300 (Bones +830)
Of Human Action: -360 (Bones +700)
Earthling: -380 (Bones +870)
Dream Logic: -500 (Bones +400)
Momentum Deferred: Comment section: -600 (Bones not listed)
Fracture: Not listed
Objects: Not listed
New Day: Not listed

"Jacksonville" lost nearly twice (if not significantly more) as much as several of the other episodes, and no matter what, remains a significant drop compared to the majority of the other episodes. Plus, in no way do the Bones + match the Fringe's - numbers for the first half-hour.

I think you may be looking too far into what I was saying...All I was comparing for the Fringe Drop was this weeks epsiode only, I didnt even look at Bones for previous weeks.......I simply said that the numbers were close, and by observation only you COULD infer that the 700K that Bones added at 830, could be the ~700K that left fringe in the 1st half.......No one will really know why the drop occured though its all specualtion......Personally I think to much is made out of the ratings as the numbers are made up of a very small proportion of the actual population that are Nielson Familes then "expanded" based ona formula to say how many people are actually watching the show....

BAhhhhhhh In the end the Final ratings were not bad....The ~7 Mil that the show ended up with is still one of the higher rated episodes for the season....

[Quill]

I simply said that the numbers were close, and by observation only you COULD infer that the 700K that Bones added at 830, could be the ~700K that left fringe in the 1st half

Which totally conflicts with the pattern so is most likely not the answer, and therefore still doesn't explain the incredibly large drop at the half hour. Hence why I am still concerned about it, and don't think the numbers are as good as they look on paper. Be assured that FOX and the advertisers definitely don't stop at that superficial number, and if something else is going on (which it looks like it for this episode), it still keeps Fringe "on the bubble". I want numbers we can reliable point to and say "Whew, FINALLY. Decent numbers that tip the scale towards getting a Season Three." We really have not got those yet.

[Ph8]

Which totally conflicts with the pattern so is most likely not the answer, and therefore still doesn't explain the incredibly large drop at the half hour. Hence why I am still concerned about it, and don't think the numbers are as good as they look on paper. Be assured that FOX and the advertisers definitely don't stop at that superficial number, and if something else is going on (which it looks like it for this episode), it still keeps Fringe "on the bubble". I want numbers we can reliable point to and say "Whew, FINALLY. Decent numbers that tip the scale towards getting a Season Three." We really have not got those yet.

Fox uses the ratings that are released by Neilsen.....THey often use the numbers if they do a Press release about the show...As far as a third season, I thinkw e can say that as long as the numbers stay "steady" that it WILL get picked up. The only thing that Fox can put there now would be reality TV to compete with the other shows currently on at that time. Fox was "happy" with the numbers before, the 7 Mil will make them even happier. They know thy are not going to pull 8-9 Mil regualr viewers against the competition that they have. Since they have never said what they would like the show to do, we can only go from the press releases they have made regarding the ratings and the DVR ratings for this season.

I said it last week and my belief still stands. Fox is going to keep this show at Thursday for the time being so that they have a scripted fan base every thursday. Once shows like CSI\Greys\Office start to fail (which they are slightly dropping in numbers), Fox will have a fairly young show that has a "strong" fanbase for people to go to. IMO it would be a smart Idea to keep the show where it is. I can say they probably lost a good chunk of fans from last year with the schedule jumps AND move to Thursday.

We also have a heavy Mythology episode, which IMO is also not good for ratings. This who have not watched since last season most likely will have no interest in last nights show. IMO to even follow last nights show you would ahve need to watch last season and part of this season. The BAD part of this is that the network may force more of MOW types of episodes to get the ratings....

I also have to point out that the number of ~7 Mil is still ~1.5-1 Mil more than we were getting in the beginning of the season.

http://pifeedback.com/eve/forums/a/t...8272#929108272

                  Live+SD       18-49       25-54      Live+7
Date              Viewers       Rating      Rating     Viewers(demo)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
09.17.09(SP)      7.82 M        3.0/8        3.6/9      9.96 M(4.0)
09.24.09          5.73 M        2.3/6        2.6/6      7.73 M(3.2)
10.01.09          6.03 M        2.3/6        2.6/6            (3.2)
10.08.09          5.83 M        2.1/5        2.5/6
10.15.09          5.78 M        2.2/6        2.6/6      7.57 M(3.0)
11.05.09          4.86 M        1.7/4        2.0/5
11.12.09          5.91 M        2.2/6        2.6/6
11.19.09          5.90 M        2.0/5        2.4/6
12.03.09          6.94 M        2.5/7        3.0/7
12.10.09          6.32 M        2.3/6        2.7/7
12.17.09(R)       3.12 M        1.0/3        1.2/3
12.24.09(R)       2.45 M        0.7/3        0.9/3
12.31.09(R)       2.23 M        0.7/2        0.8/3
01.07.10(R)       3.05 M        1.0/2        1.2/3
01.11.10(Mon)     7.72 M        2.8/7        3.4/7
01.14.10          6.60 M        2.6/7        2.9/7
01.21.10          6.90 M        2.6/7
01.28.10          8.98 M        3.0/8        3.5/9

[Quill]

Fox uses the ratings that are released by Neilsen.....THey often use the numbers if they do a Press release about the show...

You are aware Nielsen gathers more information for the networks than just the press release numbers, right? And that the networks look at those numbers to get an overall picture, and not just the superficial ones released to the public? Otherwise, NBC's "Couplings" would have lasted far longer than 3 episodes, and CW's "Reaper" would be in its 3rd season right now (and "90210" would have been canceled instead)?

And this doesn't even include the viewing panels or Q Scores, as well as other in-house statistical gathering they employ. You don't run a billion dollar company based on superficial information.

[Ph8]

You are aware Nielsen gathers more information for the networks than just the press release numbers, right? And that the networks look at those numbers to get an overall picture, and not just the superficial ones released to the public? Otherwise, NBC's "Couplings" would have last far longer than 3 episodes, and CW's "Reaper" would be in its 3rd season right now (and "90210" would have been canceled instead)?

And this doesn't even include the viewing panels or Q Scores, as well as other in-house statistical gathering they employ. You don't run a billion dollar company based on superficial information.

Hmmmmm I wasnt aware of that ......OF Course I am aware of that.......Where did I say those were the ONLy numbers that determine if the show gets renewed? I didnt......Thanks for the info Ill make sure to use it when I start my multi billion dollar company.......

If you look at my post all i said was that Fox uses the Neilsen data, and that they do issue press releases base on them.....I never said that it was the end all be all of the data they use to monitor a show...They have also stated that they were happy with the numbers in the press releases...Does that mean that its an automatic renew, no of course not.......Are the numbers from the past few weeks of shows better than the beginning of the season, yes they are, so could one infer that Fox would be even happier with the current numbers yes they could....Again does that mean theyll renew it for a 3rd season, no it doesnt.......What I stated about getting a third season and keeping the show on Thursday was my personal opinion not a fact that I grabbed from somewhere, we are all allowed to have one.....

[Quill]

They have also stated that they were happy with the numbers in the press releases.

As if they'd say anything else.

Are the numbers from the past few weeks of shows better than the beginning of the season, yes they are, so could one infer that Fox would be even happier with the current numbers yes they could

No, you really can't infer that, since the numbers aren't really as good as they appear on the surface. Digging deeper shows several cracks in the foundation. And BTW - Fox is on record as saying they do wish Fringe's numbers were better, even though Fringe is still giving them the best numbers they've ever seen on Thursday nights.

At most you can say Fox accepts the ratings. But "accepting" does not equal "happy". The numbers are neither here nor there. They're not good or bad. They simply are. But if we want a third season (and more important, a fourth), the numbers seriously need to start tipping into the good realm - and the good realm where the numbers are good, no question. Which Fringe hasn't hit yet. The biggest worry at this point is that the audience doesn't appear to be growing, which means it can only go down from here. Most shows have a bigger fluctuation variable, so the loss of a few doesn't matter since they come *and* go. Fringe's audience just goes. One of the reasons they need to keep up with the standalones, and keep the pure mythology episodes in the minority, so that viewers stayed tuned and/or come back.

And Fringe definitely needs to get its timeshifted audience to watch before 3 days in order to count towards commercial advertising pricing - which was the whole point behind Fox's "August" campaign back during November sweeps.

[Ph8]

As if they'd say anything else.


No, you really can't infer that, since the numbers aren't really as good as they appear on the surface. Digging deeper shows several cracks in the foundation. And BTW - Fox is on record as saying they do wish Fringe's numbers were better, even though Fringe is still giving them the best numbers they've ever seen on Thursday nights.

At most you can say Fox accepts the ratings. But "accepting" does not equal "happy". The numbers are neither here nor there. They're not good or bad. They simply are. But if we want a third season (and more important, a fourth), the numbers seriously need to start tipping into the good realm - and the good realm where the numbers are good, no question. Which Fringe hasn't hit yet. The biggest worry at this point is that the audience doesn't appear to be growing, which means it can only go down from here. Most shows have a bigger fluctuation variable, so the loss of a few doesn't matter since they come *and* go. Fringe's audience just goes. One of the reasons they need to keep up with the standalones, and keep the pure mythology episodes in the minority, so that viewers stayed tuned and/or come back.

And Fringe definitely needs to get its timeshifted audience to watch before 3 days in order to count towards commercial advertising pricing - which was the whole point behind Fox's "August" campaign back in November.

Geeshhhh Ok your right and Im wrong.....Now we can end this.........